Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
